QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPION STAKES RUNNERS AND RIDERS - CJRFANTASY

CJRF returns to Ascot this Saturday 19^th October with the finale to the British Flat season: the QIPCO British Champion Stakes. Part of a thrilling day of racing that includes four Group 1s, the Champion Stakes will see 12 of the world’s best thoroughbreds navigate the famous Ascot course for the chance to win £1.3m in prize money and, more importantly, be crowned the Champion middle-distance horse in 2024. This year’s renewal looks a cracker, with two potentially top-class three-year-olds in Calandagan and Economics set to go head to head for the first time. The former was last seen in the Juddmonte International back in August (a previous CJRF event), where he finished an impressive 2^nd behind arguably the best three-year-old in training, City of Troy. Economics, meanwhile, has taken giant strides this year, winning all four of his races which include two Group 2s and a Group 1. A fascinating clash between the two is expected, but they’ll be a host of less-fancied rivals also eyeing up top spot and the chance to be deemed the middle-distance champion in 2024.  

In order of XP:

· Calandagan (XP 10) – French raider who has had a superb 2024, winning two Group 3s and a Group 2 in France before finishing an admirable 2^nd behind City of Troy in the Juddmonte International. A leading contender seeking his first Group 1 success.

·  Economics (XP 10) – joint favourite who has gone to new strengths this year, winning all four of his races including two Group 2s and a Group 1. Has beaten the likes of Auguste Rodin, Jayarebe and Ancient Wisdom, so the form has substance, although the forecast soft ground is a slight unknown.

·  Los Angeles (XP 35) – progressive three-year-old who has performed admirably in some of the top Group 1 races this year (English Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champions Stakes). Last seen just two weeks ago in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, finishing an impressive 3^rd of 16. The quick turnaround from that is a worry, but he’s got more than enough ability to be winning a race of this nature.

· Iresine (XP 60) – another challenger from France who was last seen winning the Group 2 Prix Foy at Longchamp in September. Has a bit to prove with this being his first run in Britain, but he’s a proven stayer over further who will enjoy any rain-softened ground.

· King’s Gambit (XP 100) – a model of consistency this year, having finished in the top three in all four of his races. Won a handicap at Newbury back in May before a very unlucky loser in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. Didn’t run badly in the Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes last time out (Los Angeles 1^st) when upped to a 1m4f – dropping back down in distance and the Champion Jockey on board should help, but he’ll need to improve.

· Anmaat (XP 165) – Seven-year-old with an impressive strike rate, having won eight of his 14 career runs to date. Strong favourite for the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp just two weeks ago but ran poorly, finishing 5^th of seven. Will need to step up significantly on that performance to have any chance here, but that’s far from impossible.

· Royal Rhyme (XP 250) – won a Group 3 at Sandown back in May but has been well beaten in Group 1 events since. Last seen finishing 7^th of eight in the Irish Champions Stakes (Economics 1^st, Los Angeles 4^th) and will need to find significant improvement to have any chance here.

· Continuous (XP 330) – winner of the 2023 St Leger but hasn’t been anywhere near those heights this year. Finished 15^th of 16 in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe two weeks ago (Los Angeles 3^rd) and was well beaten by Iresine in the Group 2 Prix Foy prior to that. An Aidan O’Brien-trained runner can never be discounted, but he needs to tap into that 2023 promise to challenge the principals here.

· Nashwa (XP 330) – a very talented mare on her day with three Group 1 victories to her name. However, her best form was in 2022 and she appears to be regressing since, performing poorly in 2023 and in two runs this year. If the ability remains, she can certainly win, but the balance of form says that’s unlikely.

· Persica (XP 330) – a talented colt who is building a healthy strike rate, with five wins from 11 runs. However, none of those have been in Group races, and therefore looks up against it in a contest of this nature. Is in good heart though, having won last time out in Listed company at Ayr.

· See The Fire (XP 330) – three-year-old filly who has contested some warm races this year, including five Group 1s and a Group 3 victory. Inconsistent performances but some of that Group 1 form holds up well, and she could well be overpriced if putting her best foot forward – back against the males will be a big test of her credentials though.

· Novus (XP 500) – won a Listed race at Goodwood last month, but historically has always struggled once upped to Group level, including when finishing 13^th of 15 in a Group 3 last time out. Would be a very unlikely winner in this contest.

Trends:

· Age – 21 of the last 22 winners were five years of age or younger.

· Distance – 18 of the last 22 winners had previously won over 1m2f.

· Last run – 17 of the last 22 winners had finished in the top three last time out.

· Untrustworthy favourites – only 7 of the last 22 winners were favourites.

· Back the British – only 5 of the last 22 winners came from a French-based trainer, whilst there have only been three Irish-trained winners since 1974.

· Average XP – the average winning XP in the last 10 runnings has been 30.

CJRF Tip:

1^st – Economics

2^nd – Calandagan

3^rd – See The Fire

Ends