FLORIDA DERBY - RUNNERS AND RIDERS - CJRFANTASY

Fancy a VIP trip to the 2025 Preakness Stakes with flights, accommodation and raceday hospitality included? Well, you’ll have to pick the 1-2-3 in the Curlin Florida Derby first!

First run in 1952, the Florida Derby has quickly established itself as one of the top Grade 1 races in America, outside of the Triple Crown. Taking place just over a month before the first leg of the Triple Crown and armed with a $1m purse, it is one of the richest prep races, offering 100 Kentucky Derby qualification points to the winner and virtually guaranteeing a spot in the big race. In fact, the Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than any other prep race, with notable champions like Affirmed, Spectacular Bid and Unbridled all winning in Florida before taking the Run for the Roses. A ten-strong field go to post for the 2025 edition, but which one could turn into a Triple Crown-bound superstar?

In order of XP:

·       Disruptor (10 XP) – Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher's chances for a record-extending ninth win in the Florida Derby rest upon lightly-raced Disruptor. The Gun Runner colt was last seen winning by 9 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park at the start of the month, posting impressive speed figures. However, this is a significant jump in class, and whether he will improve for the extra two furlongs is anyone’s guess. He's fast enough to win, but this is a stern test of his credentials.

·       Sovereignty (15 XP) – Runaway winner of the G3 Street Sense Stakes in his final start as a two-year-old in, before returning with a last-to-first rally to win the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes earlier this month. An outside draw this time around isn’t ideal, but he likes to run from off the pace and is likely to improve from his first outing for four months. A live contender with some of the best form on offer, so must be highly-respected.

·       Madaket Road (25 XP) – Bob Baffert has had only eight runners at Gulfstream Park since 2017, winning the Pegasus World Cup three times and finishing second in that race twice. So, when you see a Baffert entrant in the Florida Derby, it is worth noting. Madaket Road finished third behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion Citizen Bull in the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and then ran second to Coal Battle in the G2 Rebel Stakes. He will be prominent early and could be very tough to pass late, with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith taking over the reins after original rider Tyler Gaffalione suffered a broken ankle.

·       Tappan Street (30 XP) – A quality three-year-old with the potential to improve. The Into Mischief colt won his debut for Brad Cox at the end of 2024 in a sprint at Gulfstream Park and then was tested in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes, leading in the stretch before fading to finish second of seven. The speed figures indicate he belongs with this group, and he would be a viable win contender with moderate improvement in just his third career start; regular rider Luis Saez won this race in 2019.

·       Enterdadragon (60 XP) – The potential for a fast pace in this year’s Derby could play to the strength of Enterdadragon if he can utilize the same late acceleration he showed on turf when second most recently in the Listed Colonial Liam Stakes. The Outwork gelding from the family of unbeaten champion Personal Ensign has raced twice on the dirt track with a maiden win back in September 2024, in a race originally scheduled for the grass but moved due to rain. Enterdadragon then finished fifth on dirt in the Aventura Stakes and was switched back to turf for his next five races. This is a tough return to dirt and he would need to take a step forward, but he could pass some tiring horses late to find his way into the places.

·       Neoequos (80 XP) – This colt by Neolithic has flown under the radar on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail but has been quietly consistent. He unseated his rider on debut in July 2024 but has finished in the top three in five subsequent starts, including a respectable third behind Sovereignty in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. won this race in 2022 with White Abarrio, and Neoquos could put up a good fight from the inside post under Edgard Zayas.

·       Jimmy’s Dailys (80 XP) – Opened the season with a victory over seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park in January (Disruptor 3^rd), before 2^nd of seven back at that track last month (Indecisiveness 3^rd) when upped in distance. He set the pace that day but could not sustain it, so a question mark remains over stamina, but he’s likely to improve for that outing in his first try around two turns. He must do just that to be a serious player in his stakes debut here, whilst jockey Joel Rosario takes over for Irad Ortiz Jr., who opted to ride Disruptor, and he will likely use the Vekoma colt's tactical speed for early position on or near the lead.

·       Cool Intentions (125 XP) – Closed out his two-year-old season with back-to-back wins at Gulfstream Park but that success has not carried over into 2025. He finished 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner when fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January, a one-mile race from which the top three finishers have been unplaced in four combined subsequent starts. Expect jockey Javier Castellano, who won this race in 2014, to position Cool Intentions a few lengths off the lead and try to make some late headway should the pace collapse.

·       Smoken Boy (250 XP) – Claimed for $70,000 by trainer Cheryl Winebaugh out of his most recent start, a sixth-place finish in which he was beaten 13 lengths. Prior to that, he finished 19 1/2 lengths when eighth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Catholic Boy colt had flashed talent in three starts in Puerto Rico before shipping to the US, but that form has not yet been transferred in two attempts in Florida. Looks up against it in this field, barring significant improvement.

·       Indecisiveness (250 XP) – Winless in three starts since a half-length victory on his career debut in November 2024, in a sprint race at Gulfstream Park. He enters the Florida Derby off a respectable third-place finish in the race from which Smoken Boy was claimed and Jimmy's Dailys finished second but, like his recent rivals, a marked step up is required here if he is to have any chance of hitting the frame.

Trends:

·       Pace Dynamics – In races where the half-mile fraction is faster than 46.5 seconds, winners have often come from mid-pack or further back. When the half-mile is slower than 46.5 seconds, front-running or close-to-the-pace horses tend to prevail.

·       Untrustworthy Favourites – Favourites have won only four of the last 15 Florida Derbies. However, horses with an XP of 30 or less have won 13 of these races.

·       Trainer Success – Trainer Todd Pletcher has dominated this race down the years, securing eight Florida Derby victories, including seven of the last 11 and three of the last four. Antepost favourite Disruptor represents the stable this time around.

·       Prep Race Location – Horses with a prep race at Gulfstream Park tend to do well, accounting for 37 of 45 top-three finishes since 2010, including 14 of 15 winners.

·       Recent Form – 11 of the last 12 Florida Derby winners entered off a victory, highlighting the importance of strong recent performances. ​

CJRF Tip:

1^st – Sovereignty                                                 

2^nd – Madaket Road

3^rd –  Neoequos

ENDS